David Matheson - SmartOrg, Inc.

Futurist Paul Saffo on Uncertainty - David Matheson

Technology Forecaster Paul Saffo recently wrote about forecasts in the Harvard Business Review. He articulates very well the fact that forecasts are all about uncertainty.

Here are a few sentences from his "Rule 1: Define a Cone of Uncertainty":

"As a decision maker, you ultimately have to rely on your intuition and judgment. There’s no getting around that in a world of uncertainty. But effective forecasting provides essential context that informs your intuition. It broadens your understanding by revealing overlooked possibilities and exposing unexamined assumptions regarding hoped-for outcomes. At the same time, it narrows the decision space within which you must exercise your intuition.

"I visualize this process as mapping a cone of uncertainty, a tool I use to delineate possibilities that extend out from a particular moment or event.

“The forecaster’s job is to define the cone in a manner that helps the decision maker exercise strategic judgment. Many factors go into delineating the cone of uncertainty, but the most important is defining its breadth, which is a measure of overall uncertainty.

"Drawing a cone too narrowly is worse than drawing it too broadly. A broad cone leaves you with a lot of uncertainty, but uncertainty is a friend, for its bedfellow is opportunity—as any good underwriter knows. The cone can be narrowed in subsequent refinements. Indeed, good forecasting is always an iterative process. Defining the cone broadly at the start maximizes your capacity to generate hypotheses about outcomes and eventual responses."

Value-Based Management software tools like SmartOrg’s Portfolio Navigator™ focus decision-makers’ attention on dealing with uncertainty and monitoring its impact throughout the decision-making process.

Check out the article at

http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/hbsp/hbr/articles/article.jsp?articleID=R0707K&ml_action=get-article&print=true&ml_issueid=BR0707

Also, if you are in Silicon Valley, you can hear Paul speak at the Churchill Club on Tuesday, Aug. 28  http://www.churchillclub.org/eventDetail.jsp?EVT_ID=744.

Case Studies from Hewlett-Packard - Don Creswell

I am extremely pleased to announce that our September 27 SmartOrg Webinar will feature case studies from Hewlett-Packard.that illustrate how HP uses their unique New Business Creation (NBC) process to identify new market opportunities, develop innovative products to meet them, and achieve highly profitable growth targets.The webinar will feature Dr. Michael Menke, former Chief Portfolio Advocate and Business Strategist, Strategic Planning and Modeling at Hewlett Packard.

OVERVIEW: It is intrinsically hard to grow a $100 billion organization faster than gross domestic product. In fact, many studies have shown that nearly all large companies hit growth ceilings or points where growth stalls. So, how to keep growing or even accelerate growth? HP met this challenge through strategies that emphasized innovative product development. In this Webinar, Mike Menke will take you on the journey of two products from concept to launch, using HP's NBC process.

I hope to see you there!

Date: Thursday Sept. 27, 2007
Time: 9:00 a.m. PT.
To register: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/385429309?Portal=www.gotowebinar.com